Optimize a slate

{
  "allocation": {
    "kellyMultiplier": 1,
    "riskConstraintMet": true,
    "totalStake": 65.07,
    "stakes": [
      {
        "pickIndex": 0,
        "id": "lad",
        "team": "Dodgers",
        "betType": "MONEYLINE",
        "line": null,
        "odds": -145,
        "fraction": 0.055356,
        "stake": 55.36
      },
      {
        "pickIndex": 1,
        "id": "chc",
        "team": "Cubs",
        "betType": "MONEYLINE",
        "line": null,
        "odds": 120,
        "fraction": 0.009715,
        "stake": 9.71
      }
    ]
  }
}

How it works

Each pick’s price is de-vigged to a fair probability. Your confidence moves it, or your probability replaces it. That probability drives a Kelly-shaped allocation across the whole slate, with each bet capped at the smaller of perBetCap and 1.5 times its single-bet Kelly. A simulation of 100,000 slates measures the risk of each sizing and chooses the share of Kelly the allocation uses.

Request

Where settings come from

Each setting comes from the request, else your saved KellyIQ app settings (Bettor and up), else the defaults: 100% exposure, 20% per bet, no maximum. perBetCap never exceeds maxTotalExposure; an adjusted value comes with a warning. settingsApplied in the response reports every value and its source, and GET /v1/me shows what an omitted setting resolves to.

Each pick

Confidence or probability

Every pick sends exactly one of confidence or probability, and every pick in a request sends the same one. A pick with both, or a slate that mixes them, is refused with 400 VALIDATION_ERROR and counts against your allowance. For example, the Cubs below send both and the Yankees send a probability while the first pick sent a confidence:

{
  "error": "VALIDATION_ERROR",
  "message": "The request is invalid; see violations.",
  "violations": [
    "picks[1]: send exactly one of confidence or probability",
    "picks[2]: all picks must use the same input: confidence or probability"
  ],
  "requestId": "req_c7558abd757947bb94fe70d516136622"
}

To use your own number for just some bets, convert the rest to probabilities first, for example the fair probability from Remove the vig.

Totals

For TOTAL_OVER and TOTAL_UNDER, team and opponent name the two teams in the game, in either order; betType says which side you are on. odds is the price of your side (the Over for TOTAL_OVER), opponentOdds the price of the other side, and line the total. The third pick in the probability example is an Over 8.5.

Examples

Rate each bet with a confidence

curl https://api.kellyiq.com/v1/optimize \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $KELLYIQ_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{
  "bankroll": 1000,
  "picks": [
    {
      "id": "lad",
      "sport": "baseball_mlb",
      "team": "Dodgers",
      "opponent": "Padres",
      "odds": -145,
      "opponentOdds": 125,
      "confidence": "STRONG_EDGE"
    },
    {
      "id": "chc",
      "sport": "baseball_mlb",
      "team": "Cubs",
      "opponent": "Cardinals",
      "odds": 120,
      "opponentOdds": -140,
      "confidence": "MODERATE_EDGE"
    }
  ]
}'

Set limits for this call only

curl https://api.kellyiq.com/v1/optimize \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $KELLYIQ_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{
  "bankroll": 1000,
  "maxTotalExposure": 0.5,
  "perBetCap": 0.1,
  "useAccountDefaults": false,
  "seed": 42,
  "picks": [
    {
      "id": "lad",
      "sport": "baseball_mlb",
      "team": "Dodgers",
      "opponent": "Padres",
      "odds": -145,
      "opponentOdds": 125,
      "confidence": "STRONG_EDGE"
    },
    {
      "id": "chc",
      "sport": "baseball_mlb",
      "team": "Cubs",
      "opponent": "Cardinals",
      "odds": 120,
      "opponentOdds": -140,
      "confidence": "MODERATE_EDGE"
    }
  ]
}'

{
  "allocation": {
    "kellyMultiplier": 1,
    "riskConstraintMet": true,
    "totalStake": 32.54,
    "stakes": [
      {
        "pickIndex": 0,
        "id": "lad",
        "team": "Dodgers",
        "betType": "MONEYLINE",
        "line": null,
        "odds": -145,
        "fraction": 0.027678,
        "stake": 27.68
      },
      {
        "pickIndex": 1,
        "id": "chc",
        "team": "Cubs",
        "betType": "MONEYLINE",
        "line": null,
        "odds": 120,
        "fraction": 0.004857,
        "stake": 4.86
      }
    ]
  },
  "settingsApplied": {
    "maxTotalExposure": {
      "value": 0.5,
      "source": "request"
    },
    "perBetCap": {
      "value": 0.1,
      "source": "request"
    },
    "maxBets": {
      "value": null,
      "source": "default"
    }
  },
  "warnings": []
}

Your own probabilities, with a run line and a total

curl https://api.kellyiq.com/v1/optimize \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $KELLYIQ_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{
  "bankroll": 1000,
  "picks": [
    {
      "id": "lad",
      "sport": "baseball_mlb",
      "team": "Dodgers",
      "opponent": "Padres",
      "odds": -145,
      "opponentOdds": 125,
      "probability": 0.62
    },
    {
      "id": "chc-rl",
      "sport": "baseball_mlb",
      "team": "Cubs",
      "opponent": "Cardinals",
      "odds": 150,
      "opponentOdds": -175,
      "betType": "SPREAD",
      "line": -1.5,
      "probability": 0.42
    },
    {
      "id": "nyy-o",
      "sport": "baseball_mlb",
      "team": "Yankees",
      "opponent": "Red Sox",
      "odds": -110,
      "opponentOdds": -110,
      "betType": "TOTAL_OVER",
      "line": 8.5,
      "probability": 0.55
    }
  ]
}'

{
  "allocation": {
    "kellyMultiplier": 0.6,
    "riskConstraintMet": true,
    "totalStake": 95.41,
    "stakes": [
      {
        "pickIndex": 0,
        "id": "lad",
        "team": "Dodgers",
        "betType": "MONEYLINE",
        "line": null,
        "odds": -145,
        "fraction": 0.042448,
        "stake": 42.45
      },
      {
        "pickIndex": 1,
        "id": "chc-rl",
        "team": "Cubs",
        "betType": "SPREAD",
        "line": -1.5,
        "odds": 150,
        "fraction": 0.019704,
        "stake": 19.7
      },
      {
        "pickIndex": 2,
        "id": "nyy-o",
        "team": "Yankees",
        "betType": "TOTAL_OVER",
        "line": 8.5,
        "odds": -110,
        "fraction": 0.033258,
        "stake": 33.26
      }
    ]
  }
}

Response

The full response to the first example:

{
  "allocation": {
    "kellyMultiplier": 1,
    "riskConstraintMet": true,
    "totalStake": 65.07,
    "stakes": [
      {
        "pickIndex": 0,
        "id": "lad",
        "team": "Dodgers",
        "betType": "MONEYLINE",
        "line": null,
        "odds": -145,
        "fraction": 0.055356,
        "stake": 55.36
      },
      {
        "pickIndex": 1,
        "id": "chc",
        "team": "Cubs",
        "betType": "MONEYLINE",
        "line": null,
        "odds": 120,
        "fraction": 0.009715,
        "stake": 9.71
      }
    ]
  },
  "bankroll": 1000,
  "atRisk": 1000,
  "settingsApplied": {
    "maxTotalExposure": {
      "value": 1,
      "source": "default"
    },
    "perBetCap": {
      "value": 0.2,
      "source": "default"
    },
    "maxBets": {
      "value": null,
      "source": "default"
    }
  },
  "warnings": [],
  "picks": [
    {
      "index": 0,
      "id": "lad",
      "team": "Dodgers",
      "opponent": "Padres",
      "betType": "MONEYLINE",
      "line": null,
      "odds": -145,
      "eventId": null,
      "included": true,
      "reason": null,
      "probability": {
        "market": 0.571116,
        "yours": 0.614004
      },
      "expectedValue": 0.037456,
      "sizing": {
        "full": {
          "fraction": 0.055356,
          "stake": 55.36
        },
        "half": {
          "fraction": 0.027678,
          "stake": 27.68
        },
        "quarter": {
          "fraction": 0.013839,
          "stake": 13.84
        },
        "fixed": {
          "fraction": 0.850708,
          "stake": 850.71
        },
        "riskAdjusted": {
          "fraction": 0.055356,
          "stake": 55.36
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "index": 1,
      "id": "chc",
      "team": "Cubs",
      "opponent": "Cardinals",
      "betType": "MONEYLINE",
      "line": null,
      "odds": 120,
      "eventId": null,
      "included": true,
      "reason": null,
      "probability": {
        "market": 0.437956,
        "yours": 0.459854
      },
      "expectedValue": 0.011679,
      "sizing": {
        "full": {
          "fraction": 0.009715,
          "stake": 9.71
        },
        "half": {
          "fraction": 0.004857,
          "stake": 4.86
        },
        "quarter": {
          "fraction": 0.002429,
          "stake": 2.43
        },
        "fixed": {
          "fraction": 0.149292,
          "stake": 149.29
        },
        "riskAdjusted": {
          "fraction": 0.009715,
          "stake": 9.71
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "risk": {
    "full": {
      "independent": {
        "trials": 100000,
        "meanProfit": 1.96,
        "stdDev": 46.77,
        "probLoss": 0.38836,
        "var5": -65.07,
        "cvar5": -65.07
      },
      "correlated": {
        "trials": 100000,
        "meanProfit": -1.48,
        "stdDev": 47.89,
        "probLoss": 0.42941,
        "var5": -65.07,
        "cvar5": -65.07
      }
    },
    "half": {
      "independent": {
        "trials": 100000,
        "meanProfit": 1.19,
        "stdDev": 23.36,
        "probLoss": 0.38437,
        "var5": -32.54,
        "cvar5": -32.54
      },
      "correlated": {
        "trials": 100000,
        "meanProfit": -0.86,
        "stdDev": 23.95,
        "probLoss": 0.43221,
        "var5": -32.54,
        "cvar5": -32.54
      }
    },
    "quarter": {
      "independent": {
        "trials": 100000,
        "meanProfit": 0.56,
        "stdDev": 11.69,
        "probLoss": 0.38569,
        "var5": -16.27,
        "cvar5": -16.27
      },
      "correlated": {
        "trials": 100000,
        "meanProfit": -0.35,
        "stdDev": 11.98,
        "probLoss": 0.42795,
        "var5": -16.27,
        "cvar5": -16.27
      }
    },
    "fixed": {
      "independent": {
        "trials": 100000,
        "meanProfit": 34,
        "stdDev": 719.11,
        "probLoss": 0.38545,
        "var5": -1000,
        "cvar5": -1000
      },
      "correlated": {
        "trials": 100000,
        "meanProfit": -24.51,
        "stdDev": 736.33,
        "probLoss": 0.42977,
        "var5": -1000,
        "cvar5": -1000
      }
    },
    "riskAdjusted": {
      "independent": {
        "trials": 100000,
        "meanProfit": 2.4,
        "stdDev": 46.73,
        "probLoss": 0.38378,
        "var5": -65.07,
        "cvar5": -65.07
      },
      "correlated": {
        "trials": 100000,
        "meanProfit": -1.54,
        "stdDev": 47.88,
        "probLoss": 0.42938,
        "var5": -65.07,
        "cvar5": -65.07
      }
    }
  },
  "seed": 5331169363815191,
  "apiVersion": "1.0",
  "engineVersion": "d4c05f6",
  "requestId": "req_4e0feecfd37049a9a7adce0cc98c2c3b",
  "explanation": "(plain-English summary, omitted here)"
}

Errors

Plus the errors every endpoint can return; see Errors.