The KellyIQ blog
Writeups on stake sizing, risk controls, and portfolio-based thinking for bettors and quants. No picks, no predictions — just optimization.
Half Kelly vs. Full Kelly: The Cost of Being Wrong
Full Kelly maximizes long-run growth on one condition: that your win probability is exactly right. We simulated 50,000 seasons to show what the bankroll does when it isn't, and in this simulation being one percentage point off is enough to flip full Kelly from the best-performing fraction to the worst.
Read postKelly on One Bet Is Not Kelly on a Slate
A bet sizing calculator answers one bet at a time. A Saturday card is not one bet at a time. Here is what happens to the first five positions when a sixth arrives, and why the reason is your bankroll rather than the games being related.
Read postShould You Cash Out? What That Offer Is Actually Worth
The cash-out button isn't an exit. It's the book buying your ticket back at a price it sets. Here's how to read the line hidden in every offer, and the narrow case where taking a below-fair price still makes sense.
Read postThe Kelly Criterion Formula, Explained in Plain English
The Kelly Criterion is four symbols and one honest number. Here's what each term means, how to run it on American odds, and why two bets that feel identical can be sized twelve times apart.
Read postWhy Flat Betting Is Costing You Money
You can win your bets and still lose money. The gap is almost always bet sizing. Here's why flat betting quietly bleeds a winning bettor, and what to do instead.
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Occasional writeups on sizing, risk, and portfolio construction. No picks, no hype.
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